Volume 3, Issue 4 (12-2023)
Zoonosis 2023, 3(4): 37-48 |
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Ebrahimipour M. Forecasting Toxocariasis Prevalence in Iranian Stray Dogs Using Dynamic Population Modeling and Integrated Growth–Prevalence Scenarios. Zoonosis 2023; 3 (4) :37-48
URL: http://zoonosis.ir/article-1-97-en.html
URL: http://zoonosis.ir/article-1-97-en.html
Research Center for Hydatid Disease in Iran, Institute of Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine, Afzalipour School of Medicine, Kerman University of Medical Sciences , md.ebrahimi31@gmail.com
Abstract: (57 Views)
Toxocariasis is a significant zoonotic disease transmitted from animals to humans, primarily through the highly resilient eggs of Toxocara canis released into the environment by infected dogs. Stray dogs, as the definitive hosts, play a critical role in environmental contamination. With the growing population of stray dogs in Iran, the risk of human exposure to contaminated soil is increasing, thereby constituting an emerging public health concern. This study aimed to forecast the 10-year trend of toxocariasis prevalence among stray dogs in Iran using dynamic population modeling integrated with regional epidemiological data. Three population growth scenarios were evaluated (minimum: 3.7-fold, baseline: 4.62-fold, and maximum: 5.54-fold increase over 10 years), along with three annual prevalence escalation rates (0.5%, 1%, and 2%). The initial stray dog population was estimated at approximately 1,098,840 animals. In the absence of control measures, projections indicated that the stray dog population could exceed 5,850,000 by year ten under the maximum growth scenario. Concurrently, the mean prevalence of toxocariasis was predicted to increase from 15.7% in the first year to 24.7% in the tenth year. Depending on the modeled scenario, the number of infected dogs was estimated to range from approximately 742,500 (minimum growth with 0.5% annual prevalence increase) to more than 2,173,260 (maximum growth with a 2% annual prevalence increase). This difference of over 1.4 million cases highlights the substantial impact of population dynamics and rising prevalence on the epidemiological burden.
Overall, the findings suggest that, without effective control interventions, Iran’s stray dog population could increase more than fivefold over the next decade, with toxocariasis infections exceeding two million cases. Under scenarios combining rapid population growth and increasing disease prevalence, this trend would impose a considerable public health burden. Therefore, implementing multisectoral strategies—including stray dog population management, regular deworming programs, public education, and strengthened intersectoral collaboration—is essential to reduce transmission and protect public health.
Overall, the findings suggest that, without effective control interventions, Iran’s stray dog population could increase more than fivefold over the next decade, with toxocariasis infections exceeding two million cases. Under scenarios combining rapid population growth and increasing disease prevalence, this trend would impose a considerable public health burden. Therefore, implementing multisectoral strategies—including stray dog population management, regular deworming programs, public education, and strengthened intersectoral collaboration—is essential to reduce transmission and protect public health.
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Subject:
Parasitology
Received: 2025/09/27 | Accepted: 2025/10/18 | Published: 2025/12/26
Received: 2025/09/27 | Accepted: 2025/10/18 | Published: 2025/12/26
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