Volume 3, Issue 4 (12-2023)
Zoonosis 2023, 3(4): 0-0 |
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Ebrahimipour M. Forecasting the Prevalence of Toxocariasis in Iranian Stray Dogs Using Dynamic Population Modeling and Combined Growth–Prevalence Scenarios. Zoonosis 2023; 3 (4)
URL: http://zoonosis.ir/article-1-97-en.html
URL: http://zoonosis.ir/article-1-97-en.html
, md.ebrahimi31@gmail.com
Abstract: (21 Views)
Toxocariasis is a significant zoonotic disease transmitted from animals to humans, primarily through the resilient eggs of Toxocara canis dispersed into the environment by infected dogs. Stray dogs, as the definitive hosts, play a major role in environmental contamination. With the increasing stray dog population in Iran, the risk of human exposure to contaminated soil is rising, posing a growing public health concern. This study aimed to forecast the 10-year trend of toxocariasis prevalence among stray dogs in Iran using dynamic population modeling combined with regional epidemiological data. Three population growth scenarios were considered (minimum: 3.7×, baseline: 4.62×, maximum: 5.54× over 10 years), along with three annual prevalence increase rates (0.5%, 1%, 2%). The initial stray dog population was estimated at approximately 1,098,840. In the absence of control measures, projections indicate that this number could exceed 5,850,000 by year ten under the maximum growth scenario. Simultaneously, the average disease prevalence is expected to rise from 15.7% in year one to 24.7% in year ten. Depending on the scenario, the number of infected dogs could range from approximately 742,500 (minimum growth, 0.5% prevalence) to over 2,173,260 (maximum growth, 2% prevalence). This >1.4 million difference highlights the substantial impact of population dynamics and prevalence escalation on epidemiological burden.
The findings of this study indicate that, in the absence of control interventions, Iran’s stray dog population could increase more than fivefold over the next decade, with toxocariasis infections exceeding two million cases. This trend, especially under combined scenarios of high population growth and rising disease prevalence, would impose a substantial epidemiological burden. Therefore, implementing multisectoral strategies such as stray dog population management, periodic deworming, public education, and strengthened intersectoral collaboration is essential to mitigate the spread of toxocariasis and protect public health.
The findings of this study indicate that, in the absence of control interventions, Iran’s stray dog population could increase more than fivefold over the next decade, with toxocariasis infections exceeding two million cases. This trend, especially under combined scenarios of high population growth and rising disease prevalence, would impose a substantial epidemiological burden. Therefore, implementing multisectoral strategies such as stray dog population management, periodic deworming, public education, and strengthened intersectoral collaboration is essential to mitigate the spread of toxocariasis and protect public health.
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